Статистика космических пусков по 30 декабря 2009
- Алексей Глазачев ·
Опубликовано · Обновлено
источник:
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SPACE LAUNCH REPORT
ACTIVE LAUNCH VEHICLE RELIABILITY STATISTICS
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by Ed Kyle as of December 30, 2009
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Top active space launch vehicles ranked by their predicted
orbital success rate*. Failures include incorrect orbits.
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Vehicle Successes/Tries Realzd Pred Consc. Last Dates
Rate Rate* Succes Fail
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Tsyklon 2 104 105 .99 .98 92 4/25/73 1967-
Delta 2 145 147 .99 .98 92 1/17/97 1989-
Soyuz-U 727 747 .97 .97 44 10/15/02 1973-
STS 126 129 .97 .97 16(A) 2/1/03 1981-
Soyuz-FG 20 20 1.00 .95 20 None 2001-
CZ-4(A/B/C) 18 18 1.00 .95 18 None 1988-
Kosmos 3M 422 445 .95 .95 21 11/20/00 1964-
CZ-2(C)(/SD/SM) 32 33 .97 .94 32 11/5/74 1974-
Molniya M 276 295 .94 .93 3 6/21/05 1963-
Proton-K/DM-2M 40 42 .95 .93 7 11/25/02 1994-
CZ-2D 11 11 1.00 .92 11 None 1993-
Ariane 5-ECA 22 23 .96 .92 22 12/11/02 2002-
Proton-K/DM-2 100 108 .93 .92 14 10/27/99 1982-
Soyuz FG/Fregat 9 9 1.00 .91 9 None 2003-
Atlas 5 18 19 .95 .90 9 6/15/07 2002-
Delta IV-M 8 8 1.00 .90 8 None 2002-
Minotaur 1 8 8 1.00 .90 8 None 2000-
CZ-2F 7 7 1.00 .89 7 None 1999-
H-2A 15 16 .94 .89 10 11/29/03 2001-
Proton-M/Briz-M 31 34 .91 .89 12 03/14/08 2001-
Proton-K/17S40 6 6 1.00 .88 6 None 1997-
Zenit 3SL/DMSL 27 30 .90 .88 6 1/30/07 1999-
Proton-K 26 29+ .90 .87 9 11/29/86 1968-
CZ-3/3A 26 29 .90 .87 16 8/18/96 1984-
Dnepr 12 13 .92 .87 6 7/26/06 1999-
Rokot/Briz/K(M) 12 13 .92 .87 5 10/8/05 1994-
Pegasus (H/XL) 35 40 .88 .86 26 11/4/96 1991-
Ariane 5G(+,S) 22 25 .88 .85 15 7/12/01 1996-
Soyuz-U/Fregat 4 4 1.00 .83 4 None 2000-
Proton-M/DM-2 4 4 1.00 .83 4 None 2007-
PSLV 14 16 .88 .83 12 9/29/97 1993-
CZ-3B/3C 12 14 .86 .81 0 8/31/09 1996-
START(-1) 6 7 .86 .78 5 3/28/95 1993-
Zenit 2(M) 29 37 .78 .77 6 9/9/98 1985-
Soyuz 2-1b/Fregat 2 2 1.00 .75 2 None 2006-
Shtil' 2 2 1.00 .75 2 None 1998-
Taurus (XL) 6 8 .75 .70 0 2/24/09 1994-
Zenit 3SLB/DMSLB 3 4 .75 .67 3(B) 4/28/08 2008-
Ariane 5ES 1 1 1.00 .67 1 None 2008-
H-2B 1 1 1.00 .67 1 None 2009-
Soyuz 2-1b 1 1 1.00 .67 1 None 2008-
Delta IV-H 2 3 .67 .60 2 12/21/04 2004-
Soyuz 2-1a/Fregat 2 3# .67 .60 0 5/21/09 2006-
Shavit(-1) 5 8 .63 .60 1 9/6/04 1988-
Safir 1 2 .50 .50 1 8/16/08 2008-
Falcon 1 2 5 .40 .43 2 8/3/08 2006-
GSLV 2 5 .40 .43 0 9/2/07 2001-
KSLV-1 (Angara) 0 1 .00 .33 0 8/25/09 2009-
Volna 0 1 .00 .33 0 6/21/05 2005-
Unha 2 (TD-2) 0 2 .00 .25 0 4/5/09 2006-
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* First level Bayesian estimate of mean predicted probability
of success for next launch attempt (k+1)/(n+2) where k is the
number of successful events and n is the number of trials.
# Does not include one successful suborbital Soyuz 2-1a test
flight performed in 2004.
+ Does not include one successful suborbital Proton-K test flight
performed in 1970.
(A) 2003 STS-107 Columbia failure during reentry result of
damage suffered during launch phase.
(B) Amos-3 inserted in orbit with 1,500 km short perigee and
0.7 deg unplanned inclination. Amos 3 reportedly lost two
to three years of 18 year design life.
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SPACE LAUNCH REPORT
RECENTLY RETIRED LAUNCH VEHICLE RELIABILITY STATISTICS
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by Ed Kyle as of October 29, 2009
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Recently retired space launch vehicles ranked by
their predicted orbital success rate*. Failures include
incorrect orbits.
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Vehicle Successes/Tries Realzd Pred Consc. Last Dates
Rate Rate* Succes Fail
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Atlas 2/2AS 63 63 1.00 .98 63 None 1991-2004
Ariane 4 113 116 .97 .97 74 12/11/94 1988-2003
Titan 2 17 17# 1.00 .95 17 None 1964-2003
Tsyklon 3 114 122 .93 .93 1 12/24/04 1977-2009
Atlas 3(A/B) 6 6 1.00 .88 6 None 2000-2005
Soyuz-U/Ikar 6 6 1.00 .88 6 None 1999-1999
Titan 4B 15 17 .88 .84 12 4/30/99 1997-2005
Titan 2(Star) 6 7% .86 .78 6 10/5/93 1964-2003
M-5 6 7 .86 .78 4 2/10/00 1997-2006
Proton-K/Briz-M 3 4 .75 .67 3 7/5/99 1999-2003
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#Includes 11 orbital Gemini Titan 2 and 6 Titan 23G missions.
%Seven Titan 23G flights that flew suborbital profiles with
Star 37 solid rocket motors providing the final orbital velocity
increment. The single failure listed here involved the Star 37
stage.Метки: космонавтикастатистика
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